The script he followed seems to have been almost similar to what he did with the Krim. It was based on some assumptions. First: Ukraine is a country that has no meaning to anybody else but him. Second: Nobody wants to bear hard measures for a country that nobody gives a fuck about. Third: The Russian army is able to quickly and easily roll from border to capital within a day or two. Fourth: After a little diplomatic fuzz , raised fingers and a bit of "don't you!" things will get back to normal asap. None of these assumptions so far did hold true. Putin can rule as a de facto dictator on the grounds of support on a great scale by all Russians, support by all the wealthy industry leaders and oligarchs, and support by army and intelligence and police forces. He is the leader of a country that has lost almost 80% of it's domestic economical power since the Krim invasion. Basically he is forced to come up with some big successes and as a mid term measure with a recovering economy. Both look now bleak. Russia isn't in a position to support any war from an economical point of view. When the bad economy starts to ever more hurt any Russian he will loose the people's support plus the support of the industrial leaders probably too. I expect him to bite anything coming his way since a hungry and angry dog is always dangerous.