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Do you already have a rough outline or concept for the end of the story?
Yep, pretty much since the beginning. Of course, yes, like you said it's more on the rough side, since the process is pretty fluid with new ideas popping up, refinements to the ideas become clearer, or just neat new choices come that would be fun to implement come to mind while writing a scene.
But the big-picture character arcs and themes for the characters have changed very little since the inception.
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