Ok so Arthur death au!
I didn't actually think of a lot emotionally it was more political, so basically with the whole mess this year and distrust in wizards everybody worked hard to help with their reputation BUT! The next year Arthur whose very much beloved by all of Central dies and the Calamity is worse than last year, so that turns the goodwell people have to hate. And with Arthur's death Oz is grieving which makes the weather TERRIBLE, so all these disasters and then we summon a new Sage.